Friday, 2 October 2020

Confronting Pandemic Influenza : "Just Don’t Let It Start in the first place" - the "Proactive Strategy" and NOT the "Reactive Vaccine Strategy"


So states emphatically and with true world leading-edge understanding of human pandemic killer viruses like no other globally (through direct hands-on experience over more than three decades working at the coal face) in trying to defeat them, Professor Kennedy Shortridge (1998 Prince Mahidol Awardee, regarded in Asia as the equivalent of the Nobel Prize),  Emeritus Chair-Professor of Microbiology at the University of Hong Kong and the scientist who first determined H5N1 (the deadly 'Bird Flu') had jumped into humans with the dire potential to kill humanity in the 'Hundreds of Millions' through human-to-human transmission.

  

We have all been warned now for the past 102 years, but no government has got around to thinking and using their 'commonsense' to address these human-to-human killer viruses "at source" through, 

1. Intense 'Global Surveillance'
2. Lock-down 
3. Containment
and never allow them to start in the first place and escape into the wider world!


As Einstein stated, 
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them" - But where this thinking is ultimately the only one being used by all political leaders throughout the world it has to be stated, why we are where we are and will be in the future in perpetuity if we don't change from a vaccine strategy that basically can never work due to time horizons, intelligence (if we have any) and sheer logic - overall, the world is heading towards a hiding to nowhere other than the eventual deaths of hundreds of millions across the globe when the equivalent of Spanish Flu returns and as it will, as history has a strange way of constantly repeating itself. What's in the way of change in the political mindsets of our leaders you will ask? The answer is  unprecedented global profits that has no care for humanity or its meaning.

Indeed, Einstein professed and believed in the understanding that the greatest crime against humanity's peaceful development and its sheer existence was where a "Blind belief in Authority, is the greatest enemy of truth" and where we should never forget those far-reaching words that one day will probably and ultimately save us from humanity's greatest threat - that is only if we change our thinking with regard to stopping these killer virus pandemics in their tracks and by stopping them happening in the first place "at Source", not with reactive vaccines that will never be there to save us and a clear truth using logic and pure commonsense that is based upon recorded world historical facts.  


What can be done
Probably the most important keynote conference speech for future humanity was delivered between 9am and 9.40am local eastern time on 24 January 2008 by Emeritus Professor Kennedy Shortridge -"Confronting Pandemics: Just don't let it start". 

The event was ‘The Bangkok International Conference on Avian Influenza 2008’ (https://www.asiaresearchnews.com/html/calendar.php/eid/1553/cid/2/research/medicine/administrator_account/international_symposium_on_avian_influenza.html) and where the title of this world important speech was, 

‘Confronting pandemic influenza : Just don’t let it start’ - http://www.thewif.org.uk/home/shortridge_thailand_2008.pdf

 

The following and below are the slides to Professor Shortridge's Keynote Conference Speech and where it is the only way that  we can ever stop these killer pandemics as they are "NON-ERADICABLE ZOONOSES" and that is why vaccines will never really protect us, as every killer virus is different and each one would require a new vaccine in perpetuity. 

In this respect if a vaccine is found for a current virus such as Covid-19 and where this is near enough an impossibility according to historical science data with these human-to-human influenza/respiratory killer viruses and where only two have ever been created that saved people who have been infected (no cure ever found for the Spanish Flu that according to modern statisticians took probably 100 million lives or possibly more and where there were only 1.9 billion people living on planet Earth and now we have nearing 8 billion - a four-fold increase in global population), it is hiding to nowhere to base our response on a Vaccine strategy. Indeed if Spanish Flu ever came back (there is not a vaccine for it to save us) and with the rapid transport systems we have now to then where the slow boat to China in 1918 was the fastest form of transport), most probably  over 400 million people would die at least and probably more (as Spanish flu was far more virulent  human-to-human killer virus than Covid-19 to a degree of at least 200-times more and where it is estimated by global virologists to have infected 1/3 of the world's population at the time).   

Indeed according to National Geographic there are 1.7 million animal to animal viruses interacting constantly and where they estimate that all virus on earth amount to an incredible 1000 trillion x 1000 trillion and where viruses have been with us since shortly after the beginning of time. Therefore how on earth can we create vaccines against such numbers that are there in the world constantly and as living organisms, they want to survive and unfortunately to do so, they evolve and  constantly mutate - unfortunately around every 10-years now, some of these mutations turn into killer human-to-human viruses. Therefore if we only use commonsense, vaccines will never save humanity and only Shortridge's Strategy can do this by critical surveillance, lockdown and containment - there is no other way, but people in power just are not looking for the commonsense strategy it has to be stated and where the all-mighty global pharmaceutical industry does not want the world to use this strategy for obvious reasons - there are not the $100s of billions in profits, as there are no vaccines necessary.

For when we look at the decimation to the global economy with Covid-19 (and that's a mild pandemic compared to the Spanish Flu event) alone, predictions are by some macro-economists (including the World Economic Forum) that the cost at the end (when Covid-19 dies out naturally and not with vaccines) will be in the order of a quarter of the total economic turnover of the world (around $20 trillion) with all the costs incurred by government and the fall-out from it that will take at least a decade to recover from and probably more. Indeed if a new human-to-human killer virus emerges over the next 10-years, it would destroy the world as we know it. So doesn't it make perfect sense to stop pandemics at their source or is my logic wrong? 

The problem is that we spend $10s and $100s of billions on trying to create a vaccine for a current human-to-human kilter virus, but very little in comparison in global 'early warning' surveillance to identify these killer viruses initially and to stop them before they start. It is also sheer madness in that we spend only around $200 million globally it is estimated for the whole world on what should be one of our very 'primary' investment strategies to save humanity (China alone it is estimated would need $1 billion spending on 'early warning' surveillance costs alone to identify these human-to-human killer viruses) and where global surveillance needs most probably around $10 billion a year, but where these figures shade into insignificance if the macro-economists are right in that it will cost the world governments and their people some 20,000  times that figure with Covid-19 alone. Therefore taking all in, doesn't this now make sense to everyone and 100% commonsense, where we have a great chance to stop all future pandemics? Therefore the vaccine strategy should only be a secondary strategy to the main one if commonsense is used to the prevention at source strategy and never let it start in the first place.

Professor Shortridge was the first person who determined that the human version of bird flu had jumped from human to human. Indeed he was the world leader in bird flu viruses and had spent all his life addressing these killer viruses. At the same convention there were the usual world-class scientists in the field and probably the greatest minds on the subject. It was also exactly 90 years to the year when the Spanish Flu emerged, the greatest human killer of all time and where statisticians have in modern times upped the number killed to 100 million humans because of the more advanced statistical analysis from 50 million due to poor medical reporting in 1918 - http://www.bookmarksmagazine.com/book-review/great-influenza/john-m-barry



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Slide 1 - Nobel laureate Dr Glenn T. Seaborg 
(World Innovation Foundation Founding President 
where Element 106 Seaborgium was awarded in his honour)

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Postscript: Overall if the world, its near 8-billion people and 'their' governments want to defeat this greatest 'CONTINUAL' threat to humanity (that requires "a new vaccine if one can even be found every time when a new virus emerges" that will save the "majority" that are infected (94% have died of the total number that had Covid-19 and who were the old and medium-to-severe patients according to current research documents), as these human-to-human killer viruses are all different and we just cannot do this using logic and intelligence with our reliance that a vaccine will turn up - Unfortunately they never have to date for human-to-human influenza/inspiratory killers like Spanish Flu, Bird Flu, Swine Flu or Covid-19 (only anti-virals that ease the symptoms only and only that; for they do not cure or save lives according to global medical data, especially when the Vietnamese were fighting at the coal face with the WHO and where their medical doctors/scientists stated that "Tamiflu" was USELESS in saving lives) and only two in the history of the world have been created against killer viruses for other diseases. For it is an impossibility with continual costs of $100s billions in reality and $multi-trillions every-time with the hit to the global economy.  Therefore in summary, it is a scientific fact that we can "ONLY" stop these  human-to-human killer viruses "at source".

The biggest question considering the dire situation that humanity has to ask governments around the world is therefore, 

"When will sheer commonsense prevail with a strategy that really would work and a 'real-life'solution be addressed and implemented? 

For the vaccine strategy can never work using logic with pure commonsense and fail humanity abysmally together with saving hardly anyone compared to stopping these killer viruses in their tracks at source - Overall in this respect, the present vaccine strategy adopted by all governments around the world (including the UK, USA and the EU to name but three) can be seen as a mere 'Reactive Strategy' and where the Shortridge Strategy addressing these killer viruses at 'source', as the 'Proactive Strategy (the latter Shortridge Strategy being that "prevention" is better than the cure strategy that medicine has used for millennium with great benefit for humanity - indeed even the Hippocratic Oath, has in-bedded within it and where all new doctors have to recite, “I will prevent disease whenever I can, for prevention is preferable to cure.”). 

For otherwise, 100s of millions of people across the world will definitely die eventually if the equivalent of Spanish Flu ever raises its ugly head again and does it deadliest once more (for there is a high probability where Covid-19 has shown this fact clearly and where history has shown that these things have a regularity of returning - maybe next year or in ten years time, but it will happen unfortunately sometime in the future according to historical facts and where these killer viruses are emerging on average every ten-years no.

Humanity is therefore on 'Critical Notice Now' and our politicians should understand this very clearly indeed - if not for others but for the sake of their own families and children, as everyone will be affected when this dreadful event comes to visit us all and which unfortunately is guaranteed according to the former Director-General of the World Health Organization (The WHO).

Dr David Hill
CEO, World Innovation Foundation
2 October 2020 (updated 10 October 2020)