The British people are only told
what our politicians want them to know. That has been the case since time
immemorial, as politicians keep things very close to their chests. Indeed, what
they tell us is only a fraction of the full truth and why people, not just in
the UK
but people throughout the world, suffer at the hands of the suppression of the
whole truth.
Some are now stating that HS2 in its final completed state could cost £150,000 million (£150 billion) and even up to £200,000 million (£200 billion and over one-quarter of the whole taxation taken from us annually).
HS2 is a point in time where our
politicians have not told the British people hardly any of the facts. Indeed,
if they knew what they were doing, they would have published the true facts of
what had been reported around the world and where these have been hugely
negative on the socio-economic outcomes and more so, the economic outcomes.
That is the problem with politicians and how they operate behind the people’s
back and behind closed doors. In this respect industry and business lobbyists
see our politicians behind closed doors and no-one other than the politicians
with their civil servants (officially sworn to secrecy under Parliamentary
orders) and the industry lobbyists know what has been discussed. The next news
is that things like HS2 are announced to the world and that is the first that
the people ‘really’ know about such things as HS2. But of course when finally
announced it is all positive for the people and the nation and no real negative
overtones, but where the real truth is based upon historical evidence and in
the case of High Speed rail (HSR) over the last 55 years, that HSR is not what
the politicians profess and nowhere near the truth.
For what happens in the United
Kingdom is that if politicians want something they will ask Whitehall civil
servants to do their duty (highly paid of course and the don’t rock the boat
mentality at any cost) and provide a feasibility document with a view to a
‘White Paper’. This whatever happens has to be positive for the politicians
when it is released into the public domain for obvious reasons. Therefore a
realistic cost is determined that may be say £100 billion, but where the
politicians know that the taxpayer would not support such a project at that
price, so the real price is halved or even quartered, but substantially less
than what the real price is. So then when the project is released with a price
tag of say £50 billion or less the people then think that this is real value
for money. In the case of HS2 the cost at 2013 prices was as follows extracted
from HS2: Outline Business Case Section 4: Financial Case, Department of
Transport (2013)
Phase 1. - London
to Birmingham –
£19,400 million
Phase 2. – Birmingham
to Leeds – £19,000 million
Rolling stock - £6,900 million
Total Estimate – £45,300 million
But downgraded by the DOT to
£42,600 million due to purported savings.
The initial cost at 2013 prices for
HS2 when it was announced to the public was £32,700 million and where this is
an increase of in real terms of £9,900 million or if you take the DOT without
possible savings, an increase in real terms of £12,600 million (a percentage
increase of 30.28% and 38.53% respectfully and huge in itself for the UK
taxpayer)
The current projected cost in 2019
according to government updates is £55,700 million reported
in ‘Construction News’ (March 2019) and a further increase of £10,400
million (a £23,000 million increase to date in 2019 from its inception cost
when first released and a massive 70.3% increase to date). So the question is,
even before HS2 has really stated, what will the final cost be of HS2? The
problem is that even the government do not know - Former HS2 boss says ‘nobody
knows’ its final price tag - https://www.ft.com/content/a439af14-1e73-11e9-b2f7-97e4dbd3580d
There are also a great number of
knowledgeable national institute critics that questions the merit of the
government’s HS2. One of them is The ‘New Economics Foundation and where their
Report “A rail network for everyone - Probing HS2 and its alternatives”
released on 20 March 2019 found,
2. London was worth 23.1% of UK gross value
added (GVA) in 2017 growing from 18.4% in 1997 (NEF calculations using ONS
data). So, even if London
increased its share of UK GVA over the next 20 years at twice the rate of the
past 20 (an extreme scenario), then it would still be worth less than 30% by
2037. Therefore HS2 is not only reinforcing existing regional imbalances, it is
further exacerbating them.
·
3. Among households of a single adult, the top 20% by income made 20 times
as many long-distance rail journeys for business during 2010 as did the bottom
20% by income. For households of two adults, the difference was even wider (the
richest group took 24 times as many trips as the poorest), whereas for
households with children the richest group took 7 to 12 times as many trips of
this kind as the poorest group. As ticket prices for HS2 may well be higher
than those for the classic network, this effect can be expected to be more
pronounced.
·
4. The Department for Transport demand model for HS2 assumes that between
56% and 64% of journeys between London and Birmingham, Manchester, and
Leeds are made for business purposes.
·
5. Some versions of the Department for Transport demand model are based on
commuters having an average household income of £60,091 and leisure travellers
having an average household income of £45,583 (both in 2010/2011 prices). The
median household income for the top 10% of UK earners in 2010 – 2012 was
£60,700, suggesting that the HS2 demand model forecasts that its average
commuting passenger will be in the top 10% of the income distribution.
·
6. A comparison with France’s
high speed rail shows that, just as for rail travel in the UK, the
majority of long-distance high-speed rail journeys are taken by those who earn
the most. People in the top 10% of incomes made 28% of all high-speed rail
journeys of 80+ km in France
in 2008, with this richest 10% taking nine times as many trips as the poorest
10%.
Indeed, the report makes very
interesting reading and a lot of it is common-sense thinking and something that
government, politicians and Whitehall do not use a great deal of based upon
historical evidence of previous large national-scale thinking and more akin to
a pipe dream and blue-sky thinking some might say that never translates into
any practical solution or positive change for people – to read more visit the
following which also has a link to the actual Report itself, “HS2 will serve
wealthier passengers and deliver more benefits to London than the North” - https://neweconomics.org/2019/03/hs2-will-serve-wealthier-passengers-and-deliver-more-benefits-to-london-than-the-north
But overall there has not
been a great deal of information disclosed concerning HS2 to date to the people
of the United Kingdom (and where they are paying for the whole bill of HS2 if
you did not know, as it is all borrowed money that the British taxpayer will
have to pay off over decade-after-decades for at least three generations) what
the real picture is and whether it is viable or not. But a few eye openers that
people may not be aware of that the UK government has not been interested in
telling the taxpayer is that the majority of HSR systems around the world are
plagued with more negative outcomes than positive ones by far. Some are as
detailed as follows and where government should know these things also, but
where for some reason only known to themselves, politicians are taking no
notice whatsoever of the views that are backed by overwhelming historical
evidence of HSR systems spanning 55 years.
1. China - People often see only the convenience of China’s high-speed rail
network and boast about it being the world’s longest, but they turn a blind eye
to its enormous debt and operating losses, as well as the serious deterioration
of the country’s transportation structure - . Zhao Jian: What’s Not Great About
China’s High-Speed Rail? The Debt, Caixin Global Limited (January 29, 2019.
2. China - the HSR network is a debt crisis waiting to happen, dependent on
unsustainable government subsidies with many lines incapable of repaying the
interest on their debt, let alone principal -
China’s high-speed
rail and fears of fast track to debt - Financial times (August 13, 2018).
3. China – “…the line from eastern Henan province’s capital Zhengzhou
to the Shaanxi city of Xi’an as the perfect example of a white
elephant rail project. ”It is basically empty,” he said. In the first six
months after its launch in February 2010, the railway reported 1.98 million
passengers. It was designed for 37 million a year.” - China's railway
boom hurtles into the red, Reuters (June 23, 2011).
4. Spain - The demand for the rail network (Alta Velocidad Española (AVE)
hasn’t quite matched its scope, and that funds from Spanish taxpayers and the
EU have been funnelled into a system that doesn’t serve enough customers to be
worth the price. In 2016, El Pais reported that one in four AVE stations
was being used by fewer than 100 passengers a day - Future Rail Railway
Technology, Verdict Media Limited (25 October 2018).
5. Spain – High-speed rail network is still making a loss overall, with just
three profitable routes. Indeed one in four of the total of 31 AVE stations
throughout the country is used by less than 100 passengers a day. Despite
attracting growing numbers of passengers (up 9% between 2014 and 2015, says
Renfe) the AVE is still underused. In March, some 50 million people took the
train, of whom only 3.4 percent, or 1.7 million, travelled on AVE routes. – El
PAIS (24 May2016).
6. USA - California has been forced to cancel the
massive bullet train project after having spent and wasted many billions of
dollars. They owe the Federal Government three and a half billion dollars. We
want that money back now. Whole project is a “green” disaster! – President
Trump (13 February 2019).
7. USA - Florida’s
governor Rick Scott turned down a $2bn government incentive to develop a high
speed rail link from Tampa to Orlando. He believed passenger numbers to be
overestimated, and that the state would have to pick up the bill for subsidies
because the line would be unable to pay for itself. His decision follows very
similar decisions made in Ohio
and Winsconsin – The New York Times (February 16, 2011).
8. The Netherlands - “The Dutch high-speed train
operator could face eventual bankruptcy unless steps are taken to boost its
viability, after little more than a year of full services”. However
passenger numbers have increased, from a low of 15% occupancy on some trains,
following the decision by the operator to reduce its price premium for high
speed rail tickets – Dutch high-speed rail faces financial woes for government, Reuters
(February 1, 2011).
9. Taiwan - In 2009 it became necessary for the Taiwanese government to take
over the running of the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation as it was almost
bankrupt, two years after it first started running its high speed trains. One
of the contributing factors to the financial problems was that passenger
numbers were approximately one third of those that had been forecast -
Near-bankruptcy of the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation: What Went Wrong?,
International Journal of Business and Management (IJBM) (2010).
10. France - “We risk having longer and
longer high-speed lines which are used less and less“; so said the president
of the SNCF, Guillaume Pépy. He thinks that France is going too fast in its
further construction of high speed lines. TGV fares have increased by 100% in
the last decade compared to about 30% for car travel. Pépy went on to say: “The
whole basis of the high-speed rail revolution – that the TGV should be the
“normal” means of travel, not just something affordable by the business elite –
is under threat”. The SNCF president also described the state railways
as: “Decaying… facing a financial impasse… and heading for the wall”. He
should know better than most - Life on the fast track: Thirty years of the TGV,
The Independent (9 April 2011).
11. United Kingdom – HS1 where 18 Javelin carriages
were taken out of service four months after the line was completed in 2009 due
to low passenger usage. In April 2011 a Telegraph reporter noted there were
more than 200 empty seats on a peak time train leaving St Pancras at 6:10pm.
Off peak usage was described as 90% empty - High speed rail? Britain's first
link hasn't worked as planned say critics, The Telegraph (2 April 2011).
12. United Kingdom - Taxpayers have been saddled with
a £4.8bn debt from the Channel Tunnel high-speed rail line (HS1) so far, a
report by a committee of MPs has said. The Public Accounts Committee blamed
over-optimistic forecasts about the number of passengers using the service. It
predicted that the final bill for the London
to Folkestone line would rise to £10.2bn (£10,200 million) by 2070 – BBC News (6 July, 2012).
13. United Kingdom - ...the report suggests that the
impacts of high speed rail investments on local and regional development are
ambiguous at best and negative at worst. It is very difficult to find
unambiguous evidence in support of the contentions that are being made by the
government? about the potential impacts of HS2 on the cities and regions of the
UK - High Speed Rail: The Local and Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in the UK: A Review of the Evidence, Select Committee
for Transport, UK Parliament (Session 2010-2012).
14. India - The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet
train is a vanity project which has little or no justification on the grounds
of economic viability or public service. Even the vanity angle — looking to
position India
among the ranks of developed countries — is a huge overreach. Only a handful of
high-income countries with specific demographics have high-speed rail (HSR),
while many have failed in their efforts, others have abandoned it after
studying it. The main problem is viability, given the huge costs involved -
Does India
need a bullet train?, The Hindu (October 16, 2017).
15. The Netherlands-Belgium-France - The Thalys (HSR) is two
to three times as expensive as the Étoile du Nord (standard railway
system), while it's only 25% faster. For most people, the time gained by
taking the high speed train is not worth the extra cost. However, since the
Étoile du Nord has vanished, they are left no other choice than to pay more
when they want to travel by train - High Speed Trains are Killing the European
Railway Network, Low Tech Magazine (December 16, 2013).
16. The EU - The European Court of Auditors issued a report in late June critical
of Europe’s development of high-speed rail… the report for the taxpayers, who
have provided virtually every Euro of financial support to plan and construct
high-speed rail in Europe. Only the Paris to Lyon route has
been profitable including its construction costs – Special report n° 19/2018: A
European high-speed rail network: not a reality but an ineffective patchwork,
The ECA (26/06/2018).
Although there is a far more
evidence than the above that HSR systems are not a viable and financially
sustainable transport system (from start to operational) , viewed on global
evidence, the conclusion is that the majority of High-Speed Rail (HSR) schemes
are not viable, increase vast debt, have to be subsidised to survive, affect
other transport systems financially and overridingly show that government
analysis overestimates demand for high speed rail lines. Indeed as a single
example, Aalborg University found that nine out of ten rail projects that they
studied in-depth, overestimated passenger demand and where the average
overestimation being 106%. Overall, it is apparent therefore that governments
(including the UK)
just do not do their evaluation process realistically or correctly when it
comes to HSR schemes and where HSR cost the taxpayer dearly and once built, in
perpetuity.
But will our politicians listen and
take into account the evidence that is out there and allow this largest of tax-burden
‘white elephants’ in modern times to proceed and be forced on the British
people?. Probably and where based again on historical evidence such as BREXIT
for example, they never listen to the people who elected them into Parliament
and where 75% of politicians voted against BREXIT. So take heed
Parliamentarians, as the people will not take another big knock against their
national views even it is right or wrong, as you appear to have taken democracy
now to a level of a parliamentary dictatorship and not what the voters expect,
democracy for the people.
Let’s hope though for once that our
so-called astute and informed political masters use common-sense and scrap HS2
based upon true facts, not crystal ball gazing that only ends up in the nation
becoming more bankrupt by the decade and which of course harms the very people
who voted them into office and their future generation.
The Alternative for a
Guaranteed and Continuously Growing Dynamic Future for the UK Economy and the People of Britain
But a far better way to spend over £100 Billion
which will be all borrowed money (that's what it will be with interest and
capital loaned paid back by the taxpayer for decades and probably at least 4/5
decades, based upon the way that the global economy is heading) would be the
construction of the £30 billion Western Water Highway Project that would
alleviate road transport pressures by up to 47% (and predominantly heavy goods)
together with the nation's upgraded rail links and the £65 Billion overarching
cost for the Open Research Establishment (The ORE) with its regionally
interconnected ORE-Incubator satellite centres strategically located
throughout the United Kingdom and the "Commonwealth" and other
partnering nations. For this would provide the most advanced economic catalyst
in the world and the most dynamic development mechanism within the UK never
seen since the first Industrial Revolution that transformed the nation into the
technological powerhouse of the world. These two mega-national projects would
do literally the same, but even more so, as they would provide full time jobs
and wealth creation for the nation in perpetuity, but where the HS2 £100
billion+ rail link that is basically designed to fail economically when based
upon the evidence of other countries and which will have to be continually
subsidized by the taxpayer like a lead weight around the British people's neck.
This is totally unlike these two national/international projects for the United
Kingdom that would completely transform the nation into the highest per capita
nation in the world according to economic predictions after a mere 10 years of
their completion.
Dr David Hill
CEO, World Innovation Foundation
27 June 2019 (updated 25
January 2020)
References:
Government misleads public as
HS2 has been £9bn over-budget for 4 years, says Commons report - http://stophs2.org/news/18461-government-misleads-public-4-years-hs2-9bn-over-budget-commons-report
One
in four AVE stations used by fewer than 100 passengers a day - https://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/23/inenglish/1464003478_520592.html
Initial
HS2 cost estimates 'enormously wrong' - https://www.futurebuild.co.uk/industry-news/initial-hs2-cost-estimates-enormously-wrong#/
HS2 could end up costing more than £156 billion - https://www.expressandstar.com/news/transport/2019/04/19/hs2-could-end-up-costing-more-than-156-billion/
BREXIT
- UK Members of Parliament do not know what they Vote For and 'Why' They
'Never' get it right, not even when a Majority of 17.4 million British voters
wanted it and voted for it - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.com/2019/03/brexit-uk-members-of-parliament-who-do.html
After
Spending $5.4 Billion, California’s
Bullet Train Is Still Going Nowhere - https://www.hoover.org/research/after-spending-54-billion-californias-bullet-train-still-going-nowhere
RFG
warns UK’s
HS2 high-speed rail project could cost double initial estimates - https://www.governmenteuropa.eu/high-speed-rail-project-could-cost-double/85968/
HS2
land and property costs now "five time over initial estimates",
figures show - https://www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/traffic-and-travel/hs2-land-and-property-costs-now-five-time-over-initial-estimates-figures-show-1-8802779
Cost
of HS2 is 'out of control' and trains may never reach the North - https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/cost-hs2-out-control-trains-16279547
Cost
of HS2 construction jumps by 39% - https://www.mylondon.news/news/west-london-news/cost-hs2-construction-jumps-39-10847967
High speed trains ‘will be made
to run slowly to save on costs’ - https://metro.co.uk/2019/01/13/high-speed-trains-will-be-made-to-run-slowly-to-save-on-costs-8339953/?ito=cbshare
HS2
rail scheme essential, say MPs – But the Commonsense is in the Comments, not
what our politicians have been brainwashed by Whitehall with and their lies - http://www.newsmulti.com/uk-news/2013/dec/13/hs2-rail-essential-mps-transport-committee
The
flaw at the heart of HS2’s ticket pricing - https://www.transport-network.co.uk/The-flaw-at-the-heart-of-HS2s-ticket-pricing/11268
‘Nobody
knows’ how much HS2 will cost, admits ousted chair - https://www.building.co.uk/news/nobody-knows-how-much-hs2-will-cost-admits-ousted-chair/5097485.article
Over
budget and out of date: The overwhelming case against HS2 - https://capx.co/over-budget-and-out-of-date-the-overwhelming-case-against-hs2/
Fears
grow over true cost of HS2 - https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2018/04/18-fears-grow-over-true-cost.html
Revealed:
HS2 'abysmal value for money' at 10 times the cost of high-speed rail in Europe - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/21/revealed-hs2-abysmal-value-for-money-at-10-times-the-cost-of-hig/
The
high-Speed gravy Train: IEA Current Controversies Paper No. 46 - Interests,
Transport Policy and Government Spending - https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/The%20High%20Speed%20Gravy%20Train_0.pdf
True
cost of the Hs2 'enormously wrong' - https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/coventry-news-cost-of-hs2-15564418
Financial
analysis of HS2 - http://stophs2.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Financial-analysis-of-HS2-Final.pdf
HS2
has cost us £1bn so far and it hasn’t even been officially approved yet - https://www.51m.co.uk/hs2-has-cost-us-1bn-so-far-and-it-hasnt-even-been-officially-approved-yet/
Initial
costs for HS2 civil works costs are £1bn over budget - https://www.cityam.com/initial-costs-hs2-civil-works-costs-1bn-over-budget/
HS2
budget ‘will balloon to £80bn’, says secret report - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hs2-budget-will-balloon-to-80bn-says-secret-report-r9qtwpbpl
Post
Carillion, now is the time for HS2 to hit the buffers - https://reaction.life/post-carillion-now-time-hs2-hit-buffers/
HS2
misled MPs about cost of high-speed rail project - whistleblower - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/17/hs2-misled-mps-about-cost-of-high-speed-rail-project-whistleblower
4
Reasons California's
High Speed Rail is a Terrible Idea (And Not Likely to Go Far) - https://www.atr.org/reasons-californias-high-speed-rail-terrible-a8061
HS2
will be four years late and cost double the DfT’s estimate, MPs told - https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/local-transport-today/news/58459/hs2-will-be-four-years-late-and-cost-double-the-dft-s-estimate-mps-told/
HS2
will serve wealthier passengers and deliver more benefits to London than the North - https://neweconomics.org/2019/03/hs2-will-serve-wealthier-passengers-and-deliver-more-benefits-to-london-than-the-north
Zhao
Jian: What’s Not Great About China’s
High-Speed Rail? The Debt - https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-01-29/zhao-jian-whats-not-great-about-chinas-high-speed-rail-the-debt-101375797.html
High
Speed 2: The best we can do?Creating more value from £33 billion- https://neweconomics.org/uploads/files/6deec6da8eb212246d_jsm6iqoq5.pdf
Regional
planning professor unmasks the Truth behind HS2 spin - http://stophs2.org/news/8950-regional-planning-professor-unmasks-truth-hs2-spin
Is
Spain’s high-speed railway a case of ‘too much, too soon’? - https://www.railway-technology.com/features/spain-high-speed-railway/
EU
Auditor High-Speed Rail Criticisms: Lessons for North America and Australia - http://www.newgeography.com/content/006033-eu-auditor-high-speed-rail-criticisms-lessons-north-america-and-australia
Does
California
owe the federal government billions from its canceled rail project? - https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/14/politics/high-speed-rail-fact-check/index.html
Some
countries are facing problems with their high speed railways - http://stophs2.org/news/2719-countries-hsr-problems-high-speed-railways
HS1
Channel link leaves £4.8bn debt, says MPs - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18733308
HOW
CHINA'S
RAILWAYS ARE LEADING TO HIGH-SPEED DEBT - https://www.longroom.com/discussion/1500711/how-chinas-railways-are-leading-to-high-speed-debt
High Speed Rail - Written
evidence from Professor John Tomaney (HSR 14)
The Local and Regional Impacts
of High Speed Rail in the UK: A Review of the Evidence – UK Government Select
Committee (Session 2010-12) - https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmtran/writev/rail/m14.htm
Does
India
need a bullet train? -
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/does-india-need-a-bullet-train/article19803252.ece
New
Paris-Bordeaux high-speed railway, less travel time, more debt for SNCF - https://www.efe.com/efe/english/technology/new-paris-bordeaux-high-speed-railway-less-travel-time-more-debt-for-sncf/50000267-3313026
High
Speed Trains are Killing the European Railway Network - https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2013/12/high-speed-trains-are-killing-the-european-railway-network.html
Prof
John Tomaney gives evidence to the HS2 Parliamentary Committee - https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/planning/news/2013/jul/prof-john-tomaney-gives-evidence-hs2-parliamentary-committee
The
HS2 rail link: a ‘£100bn white elephant’ - https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/headlines/2019/feb/hs2-rail-link-ps100bn-white-elephant