The UK’s
economic future resided in the ‘Commonwealth’ and not the European Union (EU),
even before the Referendum vote was made.
For according to the ‘World Economics – Measuring Global
Economic Activities’, the Commonwealth of nations
is growing rapidly in economic comparison to the EU.
The following is a
reproduction of the Comparison from the World Economics website.
Indeed measured by share of the World’s GDP, the
Commonwealth overtook the (1973) European Union in 2004 and by the same
measure, the Commonwealth is slightly larger than the current Eurozone (March
2016).
Real GDP Growth 1970 –
2015 (year on year % change)
Economic growth in the
Commonwealth has accelerated over the post 1973 period in sharp contrast to the
EU, where the growth rate has been falling gently from an average of 3.6% in
the 1970’s to only 0.7% in recent years.
http://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Commonwealth_Growth_Monitor_0e53b963-bce5-4ba1-9cab-333cedaab048.paper
But looking at the Eurozone, EU and Commonwealth from a market share of world GDP viewpoint, a
similar pattern is evident. Charts 3 and 4 show the Eurozone and EU compared
with Commonwealth share of world real GDP.
Commonwealth and Europe share of world real GDP (PPP, Million $) 1971-2015
http://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Commonwealth_Growth_Monitor_0e53b963-bce5-4ba1-9cab-333cedaab048.paper
Future population
growth
Finally, the
chart below shows estimated population trends for the Eurozone compared to the
Commonwealth for the 2015-2050 period. As can be seen, population growth in the
Commonwealth alone is expected to rise by 30.4% over this period, whereas the
Eurozone population is expected to fall by 1.9%.
http://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Commonwealth_Growth_Monitor_0e53b963-bce5-4ba1-9cab-333cedaab048.paper
Definitions
- The Eurozone is defined as full members in 2015: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Spain.
- The EU is defined as full members of the EU in 1973: Belgium, Denmark France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, and Netherlands (UK omitted).
- The Commonwealth is defined in both charts as all members minus the UK. Due to difficulty in obtaining GDP data for certain small countries (Nauru) – this has been purposely omitted from the Commonwealth calculations. These are estimated to account for under 1% of Commonwealth GDP.
- New members who have joined & left the Commonwealth since 1973 account for less than 1% of its total GDP. In both charts the EU/EZ start with a much larger share, but this advantage is shown to have steadily diminished over time, actually reversing in the original EU area, and clearly about to reverse using the Eurozone definition.
Note: GDP calculations are based on Real GDP PPP data from
the World
Economics Global GDP Database . For additional information
please consult the World Economics Global Growth Tracker.
The Commonwealth Growth Monitor: Note to Users
The Commonwealth Growth Monitor: Note to Users
Use of these data should be made
in the recognition that World Economics shall not have any liability for these
data or bear any responsibility for any actions taken based on these data, and
in no event shall be liable for damages of any sort arising from use of these
data.
(End of World
Economics’ Data)
Therefore on all levels, trade with our Commonwealth makes
full sense and where the UK’s
future does not reside within the European Union as EU proponents have been
stating for years.
Therefore the sooner we are out of the internal market, the
better it will be for the people of the United Kingdom. All it takes is
belief in ourselves and to look forward to a new era of trade deals with “The WORLD”
including our continually economically growing Commonwealth (expected to be
nearly 85% of the total economic global output excluding the EU based upon
2020 projections by the IMF Economic
Outlook (April 2016).
If President-Elect Trump can bring Russia closer together with trade, it will bring the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) into the equation also and where the UK
with its ties with such Putin friendly nations like Kazakhstan, can benefit
economically. The CIS’s combined GDP was $2.732 trillion in 2012 and estimated
at $3.35 trillion in 2017. Therefore the UK has to look to not just the
Commonwealth for trade deals post BREXIT, but with other combinations such as
the CIS. But added to this, the whole of South-East Asia
region that has the highest economic potential in the world is now open to us
fully. Overall why settle for trade deals that restricts like the EU to a mere projected 15% of the
world’s GDP by 2020, when 85% of the
world’s GDP is open to the United Kingdom, should have been our politicians
thinking (+ of course if EU has any common sense at all, trade with their
countries as well). For it is time that the EU opened up its eyes and realised
that trading with Britain
can only be positive for them.
Indeed, our politicians like Heath et al must have been mad
to sign us up to such a draconian and insular trade bloc that has no-where to
go, but where of course, politicians always know best. In this case they
clearly did not and where UK
taxpayers have paid into the EU the current-day value equivalent of around £500
billion. The big question is due to the ineptitude of our political leaders
from Heath to Blair and to Cameron, what Britain would have been like if
that vast amount of money (£500,000,000,000) had been invested in the Country
itself. I consider that it would have transformed the nation into a ‘dynamic’
one at the forefront of 21st century technology and not the
relatively slow-growth economy that we have today. Time as they say will tell,
but my money is on that BREXIT will prove in time to be the greatest positive
decision that the United
Kingdom and its people have ever made.
Dr David Hill
CEO, World Innovation Foundation
15 January 2017
References:
The EU has shrunk as a percentage of the world economy - https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shrunk-percentage-world-economy/
European Commission slashes UK 2017 growth forecast in half
due to Brexit - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/european-commission-slashes-uk-2017-growth-forecast-in-half-a7407136.html
Trade opportunities for Commonwealth post-Brexit - http://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/trade-opportunities-commonwealth-post-brexit
European Union vs Commonwealth – Comparative Study - http://www.australiaunwrapped.com/2016/05/11/european-union-vs-commonwealth-comparative-study/
Commonwealth dream looms in Brexit campaign - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34855940
Economic Snapshot for the CIS Countries - http://www.focus-economics.com/regions/cis-countries
Donald Trump – Prepare Yourself for the Best President in
the History of the United States of America and who will Serve the American
People for Two Terms and Possibly More if Legislation Allows it - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/donald-trump-prepare-yourself-for-best.html
Politicians are Allowing Corporations to Kill us - The TTIP
(Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) is so evil that our political
negotiators are now allowing 'Cancer' creating carcinogenic crop sprays to be
used in the European Union - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/politicians-are-allowing-corporations.html
The European Union (EU) is Heading Towards Terminal Economic
Decline, but where their Politicians Haven't the Knowledge to Realise What is
happening and Why? - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-european-union-eu-is-heading.html
The TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) will
be an Absolute Disaster for the People of the EU (European Union) and the
People of America (USA) in the long-term - We simply have to Vote AGAINST this
behind closed doors Transatlantic Trade deal before it is signed up and too
late for the People to do anything about it - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-ttip-transatlantic-trade-and.html
Is War Inevitable or is it Planned by Powerful People Behind
Closed Doors in the Interests of Personal Economic Gains? Daesh could be an
indicator of the Truth - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/is-war-inevitable-or-is-it-planned-by.html
The European Union ( EU ) is a long-term ‘Disaster’ waiting
to happen over the next two-decades and therefore why should we the people pay
for an ultimately failing system - especially when there is no accountability
and the costs are astronomical and rising? - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/the-european-union-eu-is-long-term.html
Brexit - The Truth Behind the EU's Accounts and the Endemic
Corruption that Supports a Non-Changing System of Economic Waste and Jobs for
the 'Boys' - https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/brexit-truth-behind-eus-accounts-and.html
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